I am not a Warriors hater.
What they have done the past couple seasons is remarkable,
and they are certainly one of the best teams I have seen in my 94 years on this
planet. Simply put, I like when sports make me say, wow, or whoa, or watch this
replay, or HA! The Warriors have made me do that a lot. It has been captivating
television all season.
In recent weeks, however, I noticed a change inside of me.
Something died. The fire of desire to admire the Warriors fly higher and higher
had expired. Last night – gasp! – I missed the Warriors-Spurs game as they went
for, and got, win 72. I found it didn’t bother me one bit.
Maybe it’s just a general disinterest with the NBA regular
season as it stubbornly trudges along, despite it having been apparent for
months who the top teams are and they have accordingly separated themselves
from the rest of the league. Maybe it’s because I got so swept away in the rip
tide of March Madness that I haven’t yet managed to swim back ashore to NBA Island,
where Jeff Van Gundy plays the ukulele all day and the language of continuation
is spoken.
Maybe I’m just in one of those ruts again. Nurse, my pill!
And bring extra orange juice! With no pulp! Pour it through the strainer to be
sure!
You can’t trust these orange juice companies for nothing.
But I think something else is going on. Part of my brain,
the part my pill usually puts to sleep, has been whispering a question. Just what is it you are watching?
Many people would have many different answers to that
question. I emailed Spock. He replied promptly:
“You are watching a team, the Golden State Warriors, that
mathematically secured the top seed in the playoffs with three games remaining.
For several games before that, the likelihood was very high they would earn the
top spot, though the team from San Antonio still had a mathematical chance. The
Golden State team is continuing to play its starters regular minutes in pursuit
of winning more games in the NBA regular season than any team has ever won.”
When I inquired of Spock (he being unfamiliar with the game)
why he thought the Golden State team would behave this way, he hypothesized the number of regular season wins must factor into the overall calculation
at the end of the season of who was the best team. Otherwise, the risk of
injury and the benefits of rest would dictate a team sit its top players in
anticipation of the playoffs.
When I explained to him this wins number played no role in the
best team calculation, he became very confused. We then had a long back and
forth (of which I will not bore you) where I tried to convince him, to no
avail, that being the best team was the ultimate goal.
However, despite his confusion, he was willing to assist me
in compiling all potential outcomes of the Warriors’ season based on three key
factors we identified; whether or not the Warriors rested their starters,
whether or not they broke the regular season wins record, and whether or not
they won the NBA championship.
Then we ranked those outcomes in order from best to worst. I
have included my list below. I did not bother to include Mr. Spock’s list. Every
scenario finished in a tie. He did not see why one result of a game was any
better or worse than another.
Potential outcomes from best to worst:
T1: Warriors rest starters, break wins record, win NBA
championship
T1: Warriors don’t rest starters, break wins record, win NBA
championship
3: Warriors rest starters, don’t break wins record, win NBA
championship
4. Warriors don’t rest starters, don’t break wins record,
win NBA championship
T5. Warriors rest starters, break wins record, don’t win NBA
championship
T5. Warriors rest starters, don’t break wins record, don’t
win NBA championship
7. Warriors don’t rest starters, don’t break wins record,
don’t win NBA championship
8. Warriors don’t rest starters, break wins record, don’t
win NBA championship
Note: I know scenarios where the wins record is tied are not
included. Mr. Spock is a busy man. I’m sure you’re so smart you can figure out
where those scenarios might fit in.
So let’s break this down, from the top.
There’s a tie! If the Warriors break the wins record and go
on to win the championship, in a few years it would likely be a moot point if
they did so while resting starters the last few games of the season.
At number three, we have the Warriors resting their
starters, not breaking the wins record, but still winning the NBA championship.
I can’t emphasize enough how close scenario three and scenario four are to the
top two scenarios on this list. Regardless of whether they break the wins
record, if the Warriors become only the 13th team to win
back-to-back championships they would go down as one of the greatest teams
ever. Their dominant regular season would not be forgotten just because they
didn’t win 73.
Resting their starters just edges out not resting them for
the third spot because it’s a ballsy move. It says, “We know how good we are.
We don’t need to prove it by reaching a certain number or regular season wins.
We’re sitting tight for the playoffs. Then we’re going to fuck you up.” Damn, I
almost just convinced myself that scenario three might be even better than
scenarios one and two.
Scenario five is where it gets interesting. Now, the
Warriors have not won the NBA title. And what’s worse than losing? Losing when
you didn’t take the opportunity to rest when you had it, didn’t give yourself
every possible advantage you could have. The backlash and criticism would be
severe.
Those 73 wins would be a laughable footnote in history.
Remember that season where the Warriors got all swept up in breaking the Bulls’
record, all the while Popovich was resting his players, scheming and
strategizing, in anticipation of winning when it actually mattered? Remember
how the Warriors thought they were the shit when they beat the Spurs twice in
the last week? Pop was just messing around!
Accordingly, of the four scenarios where the Warriors lose
the NBA championship, the two best outcomes are when they elected to rest their
starters. At least then they would be viewed as a team that had the most
important goal in mind, even if they were unable to achieve it. And though not
resting their starters improves their odds of the greatest possible outcome, it
also improves their odds of the two worst
scenarios.
So is the choice the Warriors made the right one?
If they win. But if they lose, it would be hard to argue
they shouldn’t have gone about things differently.
Of course, the Warriors believe they are going to defend
their NBA title, rest or no rest. And they would probably say that if
they did lose, they lost. That’s it. Not winning is not winning. They would
say they didn’t care about the chatter second-guessing their decision to go for
the record.
And maybe they really wouldn’t care about the chatter. But
they have admitted to wanting that record, that it would make a championship
that much sweeter. You’d have to think going for the record, whether they got
it or not, would make a championship loss that much more bitter. You’d have to
wonder even if they were able to tune out the criticism, there might be a part
of their own brain whispering something to them, something they couldn’t quite
shake. Just what is it you were doing?
Just why was it you cared so much about a
number? Maybe if you hadn’t, you wouldn’t feel so low right now. You’re never
going to get out of this rut.
Don’t worry. There’s a pill for that. Take it with plenty of juice.
