Monday, July 11, 2016

The Apocalypse Is Coming

Unlike the NFL (where superstar quarterback Andrew Luck just signed the biggest contract in NFL history with $87 million of guaranteed money) all NBA contracts are fully guaranteed, regardless of injury. So if you're doing the math at home, Luck got about the same amount of guaranteed money as Evan Fournier did from the Magic.

Now join me as we take a look at Fournier's contract and the best of the rest from NBA free agency so far:


Matthew Dellavedova, a backup point guard with below average passing, quickness, and shooting; four years, $38 million with Bucks. Will be 26 when season begins. Last season shot 40% from the field despite playing alongside LeBron James.

Mike Conley, a point guard whose biggest strength is his quickness, signed largest deal in NBA history that will take him through age 34; five years, $153 million with Grizzlies.

Eric Gordon, an injury-plagued shooting guard who has played in less than 64 games per season in his previous seven seasons; four years, $53 million with Rockets.

Joe Johnson, a 35-year-old shooting guard entering his 18th(!) NBA season; two years, $22 million with Jazz. Last season averaged 11.8 points, his lowest since 2003, and shot 40% from the field, also his lowest since 2003. Two more healthy seasons would put him at 19th all-time in games played, where he currently sits 49th. Also is currently 24th all-time in minutes played.

Solomon Hill, a 25-year-old small forward who last season averaged 14.7 minutes and is a career 32% shooter from three-point range in his first three NBA seasons; four years, $50 million with Pelicans. Holds career high averages of 8.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.2 blocks for any one season.

E'Twaun Moore, a 27-year-old backup shooting guard who holds career averages of 5.8 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 0.6 steals; four years, $34 million with Pelicans. Last season averaged 21.4 minutes, one minute shy of his career high.

Bradley Beal, a talented yet injury-plagued shooting guard; five years, $128 million with Wizards. In first four NBA seasons has missed a combined 71 games, and been on minutes restrictions because of injuries for dozens of others.

Ian Mahinmi, a 29-year-old center who last season (his first as a starter) averaged career highs of 25 minutes, 9.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists; four years, $64 million with Wizards.

Andrew Nicholson, a 26-year-old "stretch four" who set a career best with 0.7 three pointers per game last season on 36% shooting; four years, $26 million with Wizards. His career highs of 16.7 minutes, 7.8 points, 0.6 assists, 0.4 blocks, and 0.3 steals were all set in his 2012-2013 rookie season, though he did manage to set a new career high by averaging 3.6 rebounds last season.

Timofey Mozgov, a 30-year-old center who has averaged more than 10 points in only one of his six NBA seasons, and has never averaged more than eight rebounds or 0.8 assists; four years, $64 million with Lakers.

Luol Deng, a former two-time NBA All-Star, now 31 and entering his 13th season; four years, $72 million with Lakers. Has managed back-to-back relatively healthy seasons after struggling with injuries much of his career.

Bismack Biyombo, a 23-year-old center who has never averaged more than 5.5 points and is a career 56% free throw shooter in his first five NBA seasons; four years, $72 million with Magic.

Evan Fournier, a sharpshooting guard who will be 24 when the season begins; five years, $85 million with Magic. Last season set career highs with 15.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists.

Jeff Green, an eight-year veteran wing whose career is perhaps most notable for teams' improvement the season following his departure; one year, $15 million with Magic.

Jared Dudley, a 31-year-old journeyman forward who has averaged more than 10 points in three of his 10 NBA seasons, most recently in 2013; three years, $30 million with Suns.

Tyler Johnson, a 24-year-old shooting guard entering his third season; four years, $50 million with Heat (was restricted free agent, matched offer made by Nets.) Last season averaged career highs of 24 minutes, 8.7 points, 2.2 assists, 0.8 three pointers, and 0.7 steals.

Allen Crabbe, a 24-year-old wing, who last season averaged a career-high 10.3 points and 1.4 three pointers on 46% field goal shooting; four years, $75 million with Blazers (was restricted free agent, matched offer made by Nets.) Has a combined 17 starts in three NBA seasons.

Garrett Temple, a 30-year-old backup shooting guard who last season set career highs with averages of 24 minutes, 7.3 points, and 1.1 three pointers; three years, $24 million with Kings

Anthony Tolliver, a 31-year-old backup and defensive liability "stretch four" who last averaged more than 8 points or 22 minutes in 2010; two years, $16 million with Kings. Last season averaged 5.3 points on 39% shooting along with 3.2 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.4 steals, and 0.2 blocks.

Harrison Barnes, a 24-year-old wing who averaged 10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 0.9 three-pointers in four seasons as a starter on the Golden State Warriors; four years, $95 million with Mavericks

Dwight Powell, a 25-year-old power forward who last season set career highs with 5.8 points, 4 rebounds, and 0.3 blocks; four years, $37 million with Mavericks. Has two career starts.

Darrell Arthur, a 28-year-old power forward who has never averaged more than 10 points, 5 rebounds, or 0.8 blocks in seven NBA seasons; three years, $23 million with Nuggets

David West, a durable power forward and former two-time All-Star; one year, $1.55 million with Warriors.


Remember last October when Tristan Thompson signed a five-year, $82 million deal? People thought it was ludicrous, and not worth it. Some even blamed LeBron James for the "bad deal" because of his public support of Thompson. I guess James has shut up his critics twice in one month.

The Cavs must be breathing a massive sigh of relief they aren't re-signing Thompson this summer. The guy that backed him up and barely played in the NBA Finals (Timofey Mozgov) just signed a deal worth about the same per year as Thompson. And after a stellar Finals in which Thompson played outstanding perimeter defense against the reigning two-time NBA MVP, it's not unreasonable to think he could have parlayed that performance into a contract worth well over $100 million, or more. Just look at the contract Bismack Biyombo signed after some gaudy rebounding numbers in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals and Eastern Conference Finals.

But we all saw this coming, right? So why are we all acting so surprised?

I want to be clear about one thing; this is not intended as a knock on the players. The league is generating this kind of money, and the players deserve the returns. In fact, it could easily be argued they deserve more than the 51% of the NBA profits they currently get from their collective bargaining agreement because, well, without them, there is no league.

But I'm not going to get into the logistics and specifics about how all this money materialized. That seems like it should be the job of the NBA's public relations department. Right now, they're doing a poor job. The average fan is confused. If you want to try and get a better grasp on what's happening, here's an in-depth explanation you probably won't be able to finish reading, because it's boring to read about the business side of basketball. Here's another. Or try this more opinionated take, or this one, or this one.

I'm going to guess you didn't finish those articles, or even bother to click on them. Most people aren't going to care about the why, just the what??? And maybe, at some point, that what??? might turn into, what??? you can afford to pay Anthony Tolliver $8 million a year to ride the bench and you still want to charge me $9 for a fucking hot dog? How about just 1% of all that cash is used to "subsidize" concession prices at games? Or maybe you charge just $60 for your jerseys, instead of $120?

I would add lowering the price of tickets to that list, but the reality is the face value of a ticket no longer holds much worth. The NBA has embraced the secondary ticket market for years as yet another revenue stream. As a result, tickets to the best games skyrocket.

The more money the NBA makes, the more money it seems to crave. And you can't convince me this thirst for wealth won't catch up to the league; that instead of taking a deep, collective breath and being satisfied with the Charles Manson-level insanity money pouring in, they won't keep wanting for more until they collapse inwards on themselves. All signs point to it.

In the most recent collective bargaining agreement in 2011, the owners cut the players' revenue share from 57% to 51%. In the past few years, other former taboos besides harnessing the powers of ticket scalping have been taken on in the name of making more money. The league has crept into the world of gambling, and dove head first into daily fantasy sports (which are simply gambling in disguise, and a poor disguise at that.) And in April of this year, Commissioner Adam Silver announced the league would finally cave and place advertisements on player jerseys.

All this, despite signing a record-breaking, nine-year, $24 billion television deal with Turner and ESPN that takes effect next season.

Anyone with a reasonable grasp on reality can see this growth likely won't last. It can't. The world is only so big. Rome fell.

Just when and how THE COLLAPSE will happen if the league doesn't reverse course from its current trajectory is debatable. Perhaps at some point fans could turn their backs in disgust if the money keeps rising. But I doubt it. Expecting the American populace to collectively stand up for issues of actual importance is essentially impossible. The odds of fighting back against a basketball league seem even more remote. And I I can't fault people for that. I'll still be watching next season. I just like basketball.

No, when the end comes, it will likely be from greed, and the NBA will suffer the ironic fate of so many empires before them; that which brought you here, which created you, has delivered your demise.

Until then, game on!