When LeBron decided to move to Los Angeles, it meant one 2017-18 Western Conference playoff team was getting knocked out of the picture, AKA getting sad. Combine that with the surprising Clippers, a talented Nuggets team with another year of experience under their belt, and a group of Grizzly vets who refuse to get old, and you've got a recipe for a lot of sadness in the West come playoff time in 2019.
The current West standings:
Yikes. You could argue right now that 14 Western Conference franchises have legitimate playoff aspirations, though I doubt many people outside Dallas and Sacramento (or even people in Sacramento) would believe your arguments for those teams. But, who knows, maybe Dirk manages to get healthy and helps lead the Mavs to one more playoff birth, then rides off into the glorious sunset after getting swept out of the first round.
One thing's for sure: with the race so tight, there's gonna be a lot of sadness in the West when the regular season concludes.
Which (seemingly qualified) teams are most likely to have a long offseason? As a refresher, the Western Conference standings at the end of the 2017-2018 regular season:
So let's narrow this down. To start, here are the teams (barring injury) that are almost certainly going to make the playoffs this year in the West:
1) Golden State
2) Houston
3) Oklahoma City
4) Los Angeles Lakers
5) New Orleans Pelicans
6) Utah Jazz
7) Denver Nuggets
Oh shit. We're already down to one spot. Were any of those "certainty" picks presumptuous? Not really. Golden State is Golden State. Houston is Houston, irregardless of their record right now.
Oklahoma City may have some chinks in the armor, but they were the four seed last year, and the chemistry should only get better as Westbrook and George play together more. Steven Adams is a beast. Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroder, and Jeremi Grant are filling their roles nicely.
The Lakers have LeBron. And if you happened to witness the Spurs game a few nights ago, where he checked himself in with his team down 8 with 10 minutes to go, and preceded to take over, sprinting up and down the court like a teenager hopped up on Mountain Dew, you know that, still, in his 16th season, that's enough.
New Orleans has Anthony Davis, and pretty much the rest of the team back that swept the Blazers out of the first round last year. Nikola Mirotic is having the best season of his career. So is Jrue Holiday. Julius Randle is growing into his own. They should only get better once Elfrid Payton returns from injury.
The Jazz have the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert, as well as the rest of a roster back that went on a 28-5 burst in the second half of last year to vault up the standings. Donovan Mitchell is off to a sluggish start, but the runner-up for last year's Rookie of the Year is beginning to pick it up. Add in Ricky Rubio, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Derrick Favors, and even Dante Exum and Kyle Korver and you've got one of the deepest and most balanced teams in the NBA.
The Denver Nuggets, your current one seed, have the modern-day Arvydas Sabonis in Nikola Jokic to couple with fellow versatile big (and four-time All-Star) Paul Millsap. Their backcourt of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris is one of the best young duos in the league. They have managed all their early season success without Will Barton, who last year averaged 16 points and 4 assists as a lynchpin for their offense. At some point they expect to get new addition Isaiah Thomas back from injury, who is still only 29 and less than two full seasons removed from averaging 29 points per game.
There's your top seven. I think it's fair to say it would be a bit of a stunner to see one of those teams on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Which leaves only one more spot. One! And we still got:
Dallas
Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis
Minnesota
Phoenix
Portland
Sacramento
San Antonio
Phoenix is already tanking. They gone. However, they're only a free agent and a Zion Williamson away from making this whole picture even cloudier next season, assuming that at some point Memphis, Portland, San Antonio, or the Clippers don't blow it up and go into tank mode. (Side note: can you imagine Pop in tank mode? He seems on the verge of walking onto the court mid-game, taking a jackhammer to the three-point line, flipping everyone the bird, and retiring to Cuba. Maybe the allure of a potentially healthy Dejounte Murray will be enough to keep him around.)
Next I'm going to eliminate Sacramento. They have a lot of young talent, but a lot of that talent is redundant. It also remains to be seen if it's just a group of above-average players, or if any of them might become stars. I'm surprised they have won more than five games.
The final definitive cut is Dallas. Sorry, Dirk. Luka Doncic is going to be fun for decades, and they have some dudes in Harrison Barnes and DeAndre Jordan that would keep them competitive in the East. But they don't have an All-Star, and outside of Barnes and Jordan their team is comprised almost exclusively of players who are very old or very young, which is not a recipe for success.
That leaves five (five!) legitimate contenders for the eight seed:
Clippers
Memphis
Minnesota
Portland
San Antonio
So who all gettin' sad?? Let's go in order of most likely to least likely to get sad. Starting with the Clippers.
Before the season, most would have predicted the Clippers would be moping all year. But Danilo Gallinari is healthy and playing the best basketball of his life, and Tobias Harris has stepped up his game to an All-Star level. Patrick Beverly and Avery Bradley are torturing opposing backcourts on defense. Montrezl Harrell, Lou Williams, and the occasional Boban Marjonovic eruption give them a scoring punch off the bench that leads the league by a wide margin. Still, because it's the Clippers, of the group left I vote them most likely to fall apart and play the lottery come May. I hope I'm wrong, because it's refreshing to see a team finding success without the seemingly requisite combination of mega stars and benign role players.
The second cut from the list is Memphis, but it's also entirely possible they stay healthy and get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. After missing most of last year with injuries, Conley and Gasol are doing Conley and Gasol things again. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a breath of young air. Kyle Anderson should continue to trend up as he grows more comfortable with his new team. But their hope to remain in the top eight is incredibly tenuous. One prolonged injury to Conley or Gasol and they're likely toast.
Now it gets even tougher, but the next to go is San Antonio. Who in their right mind would ever have thought a Popovich-coached team with two All-Stars would miss the playoffs? DeMar DeRozan has been superb, but he's not Kawhi Leonard. Aldridge has been fine. Rudy Gay has been better than fine. But the afore-mentioned injury to Murray -- who looked primed for a year-two breakout -- hurt a lot, age may have finally caught up to Pau Gasol, and the West is just too stacked. It looks possible their 20-year playoff run may finally come to an end. This should make not just Spurs fans sad, but also everyone else in the history of the world that has ever liked basketball.
Which means we have two teams left vying for one spot. And the dubious distinction of the ninth seed goes to... the Portland Trailblazers, an honor that is more than appropriate. This is a franchise that has wallowed in almost-good-enough since blowing game seven of the Western Conference Finals in the 1999-2000 season. Almost two decades. It's a shame, because Lillard is all you could want as a leader and player. McCollum is magnificent to watch. Nurkic is playing as well as anyone could have hoped. Zach Collins shows promise. Aminu is the type of player that could be a difference-maker on a championship-caliber team.
Still, it's almost certainly not enough, just as it wasn't enough last year, or the year before that. And instead of recognizing that and making major moves in the offseason, Portland continues to sit on its thumbs and watch the value of its assets (Lillard, McCollum, Aminu) depreciate. Soon they will likely be able to get little or nothing in return for them. Instead of finding a few young pieces to build around Collins (and... Swanigan?), they will be forced to start almost entirely from scratch.
Which means the Minnesota Timberwolves get that eight seed. And the dubious distinction of bowing out to the Warriors in the first round goes to Karl-Anthony Towns and Co. Sure, they lost one of the best wings in the league in Jimmy Butler, but they got Robert Covington and Dario Saric in return, and they have been winning games since the disgruntled Butler departed. Derrick Rose is scoring the basketball again. Jeff Teague provides needed leadership at point guard. If Andrew Wiggins found some semblance of consistency, he could make a solid third or fourth option on offense: right now, he's essentially Wesley Matthews without a three-point shot. But even without much from Wiggins, I'm betting the Wolves have managed to cobble enough talent together around the versatile, durable, and at-times dominant Towns to eke into the playoffs.
And where does that leave us?? Our final Western Conference standings for the 2018-2019 season, ladies and gentlemen!
1) Golden State Warriors
2) Denver Nuggets
3) Houston Rockets
4) Los Angeles Lakers
5) Oklahoma City Thunder
6) Utah Jazz
7) New Orleans Pelicans
8) Minnesota Timberwolves
9) Portland Trailblazers
10) Los Angeles Clippers
11) San Antonio Spurs
12) Memphis Grizzlies
13) Dallas Mavericks
14) Sacramento Kings
15) Phoenix Suns
And you can take that to the bookie. I wouldn't. The NBA would love it if you did, though.
I mean, does this whole-hearted face fuck of gambling by the league bother players at all? Or is it just me? Does it not soil the playing experience just a little to think a growing percentage of people cheering are doing so because there's money on the line? But that's another article. Or a book.
The current West standings:
Yikes. You could argue right now that 14 Western Conference franchises have legitimate playoff aspirations, though I doubt many people outside Dallas and Sacramento (or even people in Sacramento) would believe your arguments for those teams. But, who knows, maybe Dirk manages to get healthy and helps lead the Mavs to one more playoff birth, then rides off into the glorious sunset after getting swept out of the first round.
One thing's for sure: with the race so tight, there's gonna be a lot of sadness in the West when the regular season concludes.
Which (seemingly qualified) teams are most likely to have a long offseason? As a refresher, the Western Conference standings at the end of the 2017-2018 regular season:
So let's narrow this down. To start, here are the teams (barring injury) that are almost certainly going to make the playoffs this year in the West:
1) Golden State
2) Houston
3) Oklahoma City
4) Los Angeles Lakers
5) New Orleans Pelicans
6) Utah Jazz
7) Denver Nuggets
Oh shit. We're already down to one spot. Were any of those "certainty" picks presumptuous? Not really. Golden State is Golden State. Houston is Houston, irregardless of their record right now.
Oklahoma City may have some chinks in the armor, but they were the four seed last year, and the chemistry should only get better as Westbrook and George play together more. Steven Adams is a beast. Nerlens Noel, Dennis Schroder, and Jeremi Grant are filling their roles nicely.
The Lakers have LeBron. And if you happened to witness the Spurs game a few nights ago, where he checked himself in with his team down 8 with 10 minutes to go, and preceded to take over, sprinting up and down the court like a teenager hopped up on Mountain Dew, you know that, still, in his 16th season, that's enough.
New Orleans has Anthony Davis, and pretty much the rest of the team back that swept the Blazers out of the first round last year. Nikola Mirotic is having the best season of his career. So is Jrue Holiday. Julius Randle is growing into his own. They should only get better once Elfrid Payton returns from injury.
The Jazz have the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year in Rudy Gobert, as well as the rest of a roster back that went on a 28-5 burst in the second half of last year to vault up the standings. Donovan Mitchell is off to a sluggish start, but the runner-up for last year's Rookie of the Year is beginning to pick it up. Add in Ricky Rubio, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Derrick Favors, and even Dante Exum and Kyle Korver and you've got one of the deepest and most balanced teams in the NBA.
The Denver Nuggets, your current one seed, have the modern-day Arvydas Sabonis in Nikola Jokic to couple with fellow versatile big (and four-time All-Star) Paul Millsap. Their backcourt of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris is one of the best young duos in the league. They have managed all their early season success without Will Barton, who last year averaged 16 points and 4 assists as a lynchpin for their offense. At some point they expect to get new addition Isaiah Thomas back from injury, who is still only 29 and less than two full seasons removed from averaging 29 points per game.
There's your top seven. I think it's fair to say it would be a bit of a stunner to see one of those teams on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Which leaves only one more spot. One! And we still got:
Dallas
Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis
Minnesota
Phoenix
Portland
Sacramento
San Antonio
Next I'm going to eliminate Sacramento. They have a lot of young talent, but a lot of that talent is redundant. It also remains to be seen if it's just a group of above-average players, or if any of them might become stars. I'm surprised they have won more than five games.
The final definitive cut is Dallas. Sorry, Dirk. Luka Doncic is going to be fun for decades, and they have some dudes in Harrison Barnes and DeAndre Jordan that would keep them competitive in the East. But they don't have an All-Star, and outside of Barnes and Jordan their team is comprised almost exclusively of players who are very old or very young, which is not a recipe for success.
That leaves five (five!) legitimate contenders for the eight seed:
Clippers
Memphis
Minnesota
Portland
San Antonio
So who all gettin' sad?? Let's go in order of most likely to least likely to get sad. Starting with the Clippers.
Before the season, most would have predicted the Clippers would be moping all year. But Danilo Gallinari is healthy and playing the best basketball of his life, and Tobias Harris has stepped up his game to an All-Star level. Patrick Beverly and Avery Bradley are torturing opposing backcourts on defense. Montrezl Harrell, Lou Williams, and the occasional Boban Marjonovic eruption give them a scoring punch off the bench that leads the league by a wide margin. Still, because it's the Clippers, of the group left I vote them most likely to fall apart and play the lottery come May. I hope I'm wrong, because it's refreshing to see a team finding success without the seemingly requisite combination of mega stars and benign role players.
The second cut from the list is Memphis, but it's also entirely possible they stay healthy and get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. After missing most of last year with injuries, Conley and Gasol are doing Conley and Gasol things again. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a breath of young air. Kyle Anderson should continue to trend up as he grows more comfortable with his new team. But their hope to remain in the top eight is incredibly tenuous. One prolonged injury to Conley or Gasol and they're likely toast.
Now it gets even tougher, but the next to go is San Antonio. Who in their right mind would ever have thought a Popovich-coached team with two All-Stars would miss the playoffs? DeMar DeRozan has been superb, but he's not Kawhi Leonard. Aldridge has been fine. Rudy Gay has been better than fine. But the afore-mentioned injury to Murray -- who looked primed for a year-two breakout -- hurt a lot, age may have finally caught up to Pau Gasol, and the West is just too stacked. It looks possible their 20-year playoff run may finally come to an end. This should make not just Spurs fans sad, but also everyone else in the history of the world that has ever liked basketball.
Which means we have two teams left vying for one spot. And the dubious distinction of the ninth seed goes to... the Portland Trailblazers, an honor that is more than appropriate. This is a franchise that has wallowed in almost-good-enough since blowing game seven of the Western Conference Finals in the 1999-2000 season. Almost two decades. It's a shame, because Lillard is all you could want as a leader and player. McCollum is magnificent to watch. Nurkic is playing as well as anyone could have hoped. Zach Collins shows promise. Aminu is the type of player that could be a difference-maker on a championship-caliber team.
Still, it's almost certainly not enough, just as it wasn't enough last year, or the year before that. And instead of recognizing that and making major moves in the offseason, Portland continues to sit on its thumbs and watch the value of its assets (Lillard, McCollum, Aminu) depreciate. Soon they will likely be able to get little or nothing in return for them. Instead of finding a few young pieces to build around Collins (and... Swanigan?), they will be forced to start almost entirely from scratch.
Which means the Minnesota Timberwolves get that eight seed. And the dubious distinction of bowing out to the Warriors in the first round goes to Karl-Anthony Towns and Co. Sure, they lost one of the best wings in the league in Jimmy Butler, but they got Robert Covington and Dario Saric in return, and they have been winning games since the disgruntled Butler departed. Derrick Rose is scoring the basketball again. Jeff Teague provides needed leadership at point guard. If Andrew Wiggins found some semblance of consistency, he could make a solid third or fourth option on offense: right now, he's essentially Wesley Matthews without a three-point shot. But even without much from Wiggins, I'm betting the Wolves have managed to cobble enough talent together around the versatile, durable, and at-times dominant Towns to eke into the playoffs.
And where does that leave us?? Our final Western Conference standings for the 2018-2019 season, ladies and gentlemen!
1) Golden State Warriors
2) Denver Nuggets
3) Houston Rockets
4) Los Angeles Lakers
5) Oklahoma City Thunder
6) Utah Jazz
7) New Orleans Pelicans
8) Minnesota Timberwolves
9) Portland Trailblazers
10) Los Angeles Clippers
11) San Antonio Spurs
12) Memphis Grizzlies
13) Dallas Mavericks
14) Sacramento Kings
15) Phoenix Suns
And you can take that to the bookie. I wouldn't. The NBA would love it if you did, though.
I mean, does this whole-hearted face fuck of gambling by the league bother players at all? Or is it just me? Does it not soil the playing experience just a little to think a growing percentage of people cheering are doing so because there's money on the line? But that's another article. Or a book.
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