I love college basketball, especially Pac-12 basketball. Even if it has succumbed to the NBA's replay insanity. (Is encouraging live betting next?)
An unlikely Ducks run this March, emerging from the ashes of hell, capped my NBA viewing time in recent weeks. That, and the season is just too damn long.
So, a disclaimer: I'm writing about the NBA, and haven't really watched the NBA lately, while it slowly, begrudgingly slogged toward the playoffs. Because, really, the past month of wear-and-tear on players' bodies (or lack thereof with players resting, a fan-favorite activity), did little except delay the inevitable.
What inevitable? Here are the standings on March 8 (ignore asterisks):
3) Blazers (9)
4) Rockets (3)
5) Jazz (6)
6) Thunder (5)
7) Spurs (11)
8) Clippers (10)
9) Kings (14)
10) Lakers (4)
11) Timberwolves (8)
12) Grizzlies (12)
13) Pelicans (7)
14) Mavericks (13)
15) Suns (15)
Why did I go wrong, and why did I go right? For that, we need a team-by-team breakdown, starting with, of course, your...
1) Golden State Warriors. Projected finish: ONE
Yep.
2) Denver Nuggets. Projected finish: TWO
The Nuggets did their best to squander this spot, losing 6 of their last 11 games as they prioritized rest in preparation for the playoffs... because the NBA season is just too damn long.
Finishing second is even more impressive when you consider Denver had several key players miss significant time. The Nuggets are the deepest team in the league. They are young, and will absolutely be a championship contender for the next few years, assuming Kevin Durant leaves the Warriors.
3) Portland Trail Blazers. Projected finish: NINE
Down 87-59 (!) to Sacramento and resting almost their entire team, the Blazers appeared headed for the four seed last night. Then mayhem, a comeback victory, and the strangest box score of the year.
If the Blazers were actually trying to lose one of their final games so they could avoid the Thunder, hmm... maybe the NBA season is too damn long. Potentially avoiding the Warriors in the second round seems like the outcome they should have wanted. It's the one they got with a three seed.
As for the prediction of ninth. Whoops. Easily the worst of the bunch, even if an unexpected demise from LeBron and then the Pelicans helped the Blazers rise. Lesson: don't pick against Damian Lillard.
Acquiring Rodney Hood at the trade deadline was a nice boost. Following that by sniping Enes Kanter for nothing was massive. Though, I still think they should have gone after Otto Porter Jr., who ended up in Chicago. Jake Layman came out of nowhere in the middle of the year, followed by Moe Harkless re-emerging as a reliable option, and the Blazers managed to weather the storm of C.J. McCollum, and then Jusuf Nurkic, going down. Nurkic was playing like an All-Star. His injury was very sad.
What remains to be seen is if the Blazers can translate regular season success into playoff success, and if whatever it was they were brewing in the 2016 offseason of pure chaos might finally pan out. With McCollum healthy again, they're certainly capable. But, bow out of the playoffs in the first round for a third straight season (which potentially would be a fifth straight season, if not for the Clippers losing Blake Griffin and Chris Paul in 2016), and you have to wonder if they might be wishing they had blown it up, and were already chasing the Zion Williamson lottery.
Come on. None of that. Sco.
4) Houston Rockets. Projected finish: THREE
The Rockets are a unique combination of high scoring and predictability, mastering the art of putting up points while still being dull to watch.
Giannis for MVP -- as I said last season, he was a year away.
5) Utah Jazz. Projected Finish: SIX
The Jazz are good. Donovan Mitchell will be even better next year. Rudy Gobert was an egregious All-Star snub. They're on the short list of "contenders if the Warriors lose Durant." Rockets-Jazz is a Conference Finals matchup in the first round.
6) Oklahoma City Thunder. Projected Finish: FIVE
Meh.
7) San Antonio Spurs. Projected Finish: ELEVEN
What was I thinking? Picking against Pop? Picking against a team that had made the playoffs for TWENTY-ONE straight seasons??
They're likely headed for a first-round exit, though Denver can't be happy a matchup with San Antonio is their reward for a great regular season. Did the Spurs set one of the strangest under-the-radar records for road futility?
I hope Pop never retires.
8) Los Angeles Clippers. Projected Finish: TEN
Even the Clippers didn't think the Clippers were going to make the playoffs: they traded away their best player, Tobias Harris, at the trade deadline. But Doc Rivers' moment, that one I didn't want to write about, kept marching on.
I like this team. How can you not like a group of cast-offs and bounce-backs? However, their ceiling is about as low as a hobbit hole in the Shire. Outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, there's not a lot of promising youth or talent here. I foresee a lot of losses in their future. Hopefully, Doc Rivers sticks around to endure them.
Or maybe Rivers ends up coaching the Lakers -- a scenario that seems likely, since he's already denied it. And LeBron will continue his quest to affiliate himself with everything I like least about the NBA.
9) Sacramento Kings. Projected Finish: FOURTEEN
The Kings made a go of it. Didn't see that coming. Maybe Vlade Divac knows what he's doing after all?
In my December article, I wrote "They have a lot of talent... it remains to be seen if it's just a group of above-average players, or if any of them might become stars." I'm still not sold on Buddy Hield (who is already 26), though he's certainly doing better than I anticipated. But De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley Jr. are going to be great players. You can throw a Harry Giles III wild card in there as well.
10) Los Angeles Lakers. Projected Finish: FOUR
LeBron went down on Christmas, was forced to sit the next 16 games, and the Lakers never recovered. It was the most games he's ever missed from injury, so it was unexpected, even if it was his 16th season. The dude is DURABLE, and clearly didn't move to L.A. to spend the year tanking. See: 16th season.
Trade rumors swirling about giving up essentially their entire roster to acquire Anthony Davis didn't help. The Pelicans played Magic Johnson like a flute, and it was a joy to watch. (Note: I wrote this a couple days ago, before Johnson abruptly resigned. I have nothing to add except to say that I have nothing to add. And haha.)
Will LeBron recover? I'd say yes. He is The Goat, after all, though he did start showing signs of mortality. Anthony Davis will aid that recovery.
The NBA Finals will be without LeBron for the first time since 2010, which means we won't get any astounding LeBron playoff numbers, and there will be a whole lot less excitement and intrigue. All he did this year was pass Michael Jordan in career points, and become the first player in NBA history to rank in the top 10 for career points and assists.
11) Minnesota Timberwolves. Projected Finish: EIGHT
The Timberwolves haven't looked like a playoff team for a while. This was another bad pick. Robert Covington, a legit candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, missing the final three months was a big loss. Jeff Teague couldn't get healthy. Any team lamenting injuries can look to the Nuggets and chill out.
Karl Anthony-Towns is a first-team All-NBA player. Still, the 2019-2020 Timberwolves are probably going to closely resemble the 2018-2019 Timberwolves, and this is one of the few teams in the West that looks poised (un-poised?) to take a step back.
Fuck Derrick Rose anyway.
12) Memphis Grizzlies. Projected Finish: TWELVE
The Grit and Grind Era is officially for real over. Z-Bo and Tony Allen been gone, and Marc Gasol was dealt to Toronto, one of several out-of-nowhere juggernauts in the East who -- sorry, forgot, for arbitrary reasons only the West is discussed in this article.
Mike Conley is great, but ever since signing a $153 million contract in -- you guessed it -- that 2016 offseason of madness, he hasn't been able to stay on the court. The Grizzlies will pay him and Chandler Parsons almost $60 million combined next year. Call it the Grin and Bear It Era (no pun intended).
It's not all grim. Jaren Jackson Jr., only 19, already looks like a player you can build a team around. And, of course, they have a lethal combination of future MVPs in Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey. Still waiting for them to add Jordan Bell and Chris Boucher.
13) New Orleans Pelicans. Projected Finish: SEVEN
Oh boy, where to begin. You have to think Anthony Davis has some regrets. Not only did he come out and publicly demand a trade, he followed that up by saying "All other 29 teams are on my list... I just want to win."
Apparently, making the second round of the playoffs on a talented young team doesn't count as winning.
The Pelicans had assembled nice pieces around AD. Jrue Holiday is an elite, two-way point guard. Nikola Mirotic was putting up 8+ rebounds and almost three made three-pointers a game. AD can look all he wants: he won't find another player with those numbers. Julius Randle is a 20 and 10 guy, throw in a few assists, and he's only 24. They SWEPT the Blazers in the first round in 2018, before running into the Golden State brick wall.
New Orleans will get a haul in return for Davis, but there won't be any generational talents with a 7' 6" wingspan in that package. If Alvin Gentry gets fired as a result of this fiasco, that is madness.
14) Dallas Mavericks. Projected Finish: THIRTEEN
Luka Comin' Yo. Best clear the block, before he huff and puff.
Getting Kristaps Porzingis at the trade deadline was a coup, despite the injury risk. Pairing him with Luka Doncic has the potential to be the most unusual and spectacular combination in the league. And I didn't think anyone would take that crown away from Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid for years.
Doncic/Porzingis, it rolls off the tongue.
The Mavericks are a playoff-caliber team next year, if healthy.
15) Phoenix Suns. Projected Finish: FIFTEEN
They sucked, which was as easy to predict as the Warriors not sucking. Devin Booker's obscene burst of scoring in three straight losses at the end of March (59, 50, 48) was one of many useless, bloated statistical achievements this year brought on by, among other things, the NBA's overly aggressive rule changes. (However, his teammate, Jamal Crawford, dropping 50 at age 39 in what might have been his swan song was awesome.) It seems Adam Silver consulted his reptilian, number-crunching overlord and was told the higher the scoring, the higher the incoming cash flow. Whoever he consults should have told him about Vince Carter.
In addition to Booker, Deandre Ayton is a beast. Mikal Bridges and Josh Jackson both possess off-the-charts athleticism, are only 22, and have flashed stardom. The Suns are going to get another very high draft pick in June. If they luck into Zion Williamson, watch out.
Perhaps most importantly, Phoenix has avoided getting stuck with any bad contracts. They have all sorts of money to sign a big free agent in the next couple offseasons. Give me Phoenix's situation over almost any other team that missed the playoffs, and some of the teams that made it in.
And that's all fifteen, very top to very bottom.
Where does that leave us?
FOUR of the teams that missed the playoffs in the West will be improved next season: the Lakers, Kings, Mavericks, and Suns, with the likelihood of each cracking the top eight in that order. The Timberwolves aren't turning into a pushover, either. Outside of the Clippers, no one who made the playoffs is getting much worse. It's gonna be a bloodbath, an enduring battle, out there.
Oh yeah, before we get there, the Warriors have to win another championship. Then will their era of dominance finally end? What shall we have to do before we can go on?
Screw it, who cares. Let's golf.
An unlikely Ducks run this March, emerging from the ashes of hell, capped my NBA viewing time in recent weeks. That, and the season is just too damn long.
So, a disclaimer: I'm writing about the NBA, and haven't really watched the NBA lately, while it slowly, begrudgingly slogged toward the playoffs. Because, really, the past month of wear-and-tear on players' bodies (or lack thereof with players resting, a fan-favorite activity), did little except delay the inevitable.
What inevitable? Here are the standings on March 8 (ignore asterisks):
And here are the final standings:
Were those extra games worth it? No.
No!
But that's not what this is about. This is about checking in on my predictions from December, when I guessed what teams would miss, and make, the playoffs in the stacked Western Conference, and in what order. That was back when the standings looked like this:
So let's get into it.
The final standings again, minus the stat goodies, with my projected finish in parenthesis:
1) Warriors (1)
2) Nuggets (2)3) Blazers (9)
4) Rockets (3)
5) Jazz (6)
6) Thunder (5)
7) Spurs (11)
8) Clippers (10)
9) Kings (14)
10) Lakers (4)
11) Timberwolves (8)
12) Grizzlies (12)
13) Pelicans (7)
14) Mavericks (13)
15) Suns (15)
Why did I go wrong, and why did I go right? For that, we need a team-by-team breakdown, starting with, of course, your...
1) Golden State Warriors. Projected finish: ONE
Yep.
2) Denver Nuggets. Projected finish: TWO
The Nuggets did their best to squander this spot, losing 6 of their last 11 games as they prioritized rest in preparation for the playoffs... because the NBA season is just too damn long.
Finishing second is even more impressive when you consider Denver had several key players miss significant time. The Nuggets are the deepest team in the league. They are young, and will absolutely be a championship contender for the next few years, assuming Kevin Durant leaves the Warriors.
3) Portland Trail Blazers. Projected finish: NINE
Down 87-59 (!) to Sacramento and resting almost their entire team, the Blazers appeared headed for the four seed last night. Then mayhem, a comeback victory, and the strangest box score of the year.
If the Blazers were actually trying to lose one of their final games so they could avoid the Thunder, hmm... maybe the NBA season is too damn long. Potentially avoiding the Warriors in the second round seems like the outcome they should have wanted. It's the one they got with a three seed.
As for the prediction of ninth. Whoops. Easily the worst of the bunch, even if an unexpected demise from LeBron and then the Pelicans helped the Blazers rise. Lesson: don't pick against Damian Lillard.
Acquiring Rodney Hood at the trade deadline was a nice boost. Following that by sniping Enes Kanter for nothing was massive. Though, I still think they should have gone after Otto Porter Jr., who ended up in Chicago. Jake Layman came out of nowhere in the middle of the year, followed by Moe Harkless re-emerging as a reliable option, and the Blazers managed to weather the storm of C.J. McCollum, and then Jusuf Nurkic, going down. Nurkic was playing like an All-Star. His injury was very sad.
What remains to be seen is if the Blazers can translate regular season success into playoff success, and if whatever it was they were brewing in the 2016 offseason of pure chaos might finally pan out. With McCollum healthy again, they're certainly capable. But, bow out of the playoffs in the first round for a third straight season (which potentially would be a fifth straight season, if not for the Clippers losing Blake Griffin and Chris Paul in 2016), and you have to wonder if they might be wishing they had blown it up, and were already chasing the Zion Williamson lottery.
Come on. None of that. Sco.
4) Houston Rockets. Projected finish: THREE
The Rockets are a unique combination of high scoring and predictability, mastering the art of putting up points while still being dull to watch.
Giannis for MVP -- as I said last season, he was a year away.
5) Utah Jazz. Projected Finish: SIX
The Jazz are good. Donovan Mitchell will be even better next year. Rudy Gobert was an egregious All-Star snub. They're on the short list of "contenders if the Warriors lose Durant." Rockets-Jazz is a Conference Finals matchup in the first round.
6) Oklahoma City Thunder. Projected Finish: FIVE
Meh.
7) San Antonio Spurs. Projected Finish: ELEVEN
What was I thinking? Picking against Pop? Picking against a team that had made the playoffs for TWENTY-ONE straight seasons??
They're likely headed for a first-round exit, though Denver can't be happy a matchup with San Antonio is their reward for a great regular season. Did the Spurs set one of the strangest under-the-radar records for road futility?
I hope Pop never retires.
8) Los Angeles Clippers. Projected Finish: TEN
Even the Clippers didn't think the Clippers were going to make the playoffs: they traded away their best player, Tobias Harris, at the trade deadline. But Doc Rivers' moment, that one I didn't want to write about, kept marching on.
I like this team. How can you not like a group of cast-offs and bounce-backs? However, their ceiling is about as low as a hobbit hole in the Shire. Outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, there's not a lot of promising youth or talent here. I foresee a lot of losses in their future. Hopefully, Doc Rivers sticks around to endure them.
Or maybe Rivers ends up coaching the Lakers -- a scenario that seems likely, since he's already denied it. And LeBron will continue his quest to affiliate himself with everything I like least about the NBA.
9) Sacramento Kings. Projected Finish: FOURTEEN
The Kings made a go of it. Didn't see that coming. Maybe Vlade Divac knows what he's doing after all?
In my December article, I wrote "They have a lot of talent... it remains to be seen if it's just a group of above-average players, or if any of them might become stars." I'm still not sold on Buddy Hield (who is already 26), though he's certainly doing better than I anticipated. But De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley Jr. are going to be great players. You can throw a Harry Giles III wild card in there as well.
10) Los Angeles Lakers. Projected Finish: FOUR
LeBron went down on Christmas, was forced to sit the next 16 games, and the Lakers never recovered. It was the most games he's ever missed from injury, so it was unexpected, even if it was his 16th season. The dude is DURABLE, and clearly didn't move to L.A. to spend the year tanking. See: 16th season.
Trade rumors swirling about giving up essentially their entire roster to acquire Anthony Davis didn't help. The Pelicans played Magic Johnson like a flute, and it was a joy to watch. (Note: I wrote this a couple days ago, before Johnson abruptly resigned. I have nothing to add except to say that I have nothing to add. And haha.)
Will LeBron recover? I'd say yes. He is The Goat, after all, though he did start showing signs of mortality. Anthony Davis will aid that recovery.
The NBA Finals will be without LeBron for the first time since 2010, which means we won't get any astounding LeBron playoff numbers, and there will be a whole lot less excitement and intrigue. All he did this year was pass Michael Jordan in career points, and become the first player in NBA history to rank in the top 10 for career points and assists.
11) Minnesota Timberwolves. Projected Finish: EIGHT
The Timberwolves haven't looked like a playoff team for a while. This was another bad pick. Robert Covington, a legit candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, missing the final three months was a big loss. Jeff Teague couldn't get healthy. Any team lamenting injuries can look to the Nuggets and chill out.
Karl Anthony-Towns is a first-team All-NBA player. Still, the 2019-2020 Timberwolves are probably going to closely resemble the 2018-2019 Timberwolves, and this is one of the few teams in the West that looks poised (un-poised?) to take a step back.
Fuck Derrick Rose anyway.
12) Memphis Grizzlies. Projected Finish: TWELVE
The Grit and Grind Era is officially for real over. Z-Bo and Tony Allen been gone, and Marc Gasol was dealt to Toronto, one of several out-of-nowhere juggernauts in the East who -- sorry, forgot, for arbitrary reasons only the West is discussed in this article.
Mike Conley is great, but ever since signing a $153 million contract in -- you guessed it -- that 2016 offseason of madness, he hasn't been able to stay on the court. The Grizzlies will pay him and Chandler Parsons almost $60 million combined next year. Call it the Grin and Bear It Era (no pun intended).
It's not all grim. Jaren Jackson Jr., only 19, already looks like a player you can build a team around. And, of course, they have a lethal combination of future MVPs in Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey. Still waiting for them to add Jordan Bell and Chris Boucher.
13) New Orleans Pelicans. Projected Finish: SEVEN
Oh boy, where to begin. You have to think Anthony Davis has some regrets. Not only did he come out and publicly demand a trade, he followed that up by saying "All other 29 teams are on my list... I just want to win."
Apparently, making the second round of the playoffs on a talented young team doesn't count as winning.
The Pelicans had assembled nice pieces around AD. Jrue Holiday is an elite, two-way point guard. Nikola Mirotic was putting up 8+ rebounds and almost three made three-pointers a game. AD can look all he wants: he won't find another player with those numbers. Julius Randle is a 20 and 10 guy, throw in a few assists, and he's only 24. They SWEPT the Blazers in the first round in 2018, before running into the Golden State brick wall.
New Orleans will get a haul in return for Davis, but there won't be any generational talents with a 7' 6" wingspan in that package. If Alvin Gentry gets fired as a result of this fiasco, that is madness.
14) Dallas Mavericks. Projected Finish: THIRTEEN
Luka Comin' Yo. Best clear the block, before he huff and puff.
Getting Kristaps Porzingis at the trade deadline was a coup, despite the injury risk. Pairing him with Luka Doncic has the potential to be the most unusual and spectacular combination in the league. And I didn't think anyone would take that crown away from Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid for years.
Doncic/Porzingis, it rolls off the tongue.
The Mavericks are a playoff-caliber team next year, if healthy.
15) Phoenix Suns. Projected Finish: FIFTEEN
They sucked, which was as easy to predict as the Warriors not sucking. Devin Booker's obscene burst of scoring in three straight losses at the end of March (59, 50, 48) was one of many useless, bloated statistical achievements this year brought on by, among other things, the NBA's overly aggressive rule changes. (However, his teammate, Jamal Crawford, dropping 50 at age 39 in what might have been his swan song was awesome.) It seems Adam Silver consulted his reptilian, number-crunching overlord and was told the higher the scoring, the higher the incoming cash flow. Whoever he consults should have told him about Vince Carter.
In addition to Booker, Deandre Ayton is a beast. Mikal Bridges and Josh Jackson both possess off-the-charts athleticism, are only 22, and have flashed stardom. The Suns are going to get another very high draft pick in June. If they luck into Zion Williamson, watch out.
Perhaps most importantly, Phoenix has avoided getting stuck with any bad contracts. They have all sorts of money to sign a big free agent in the next couple offseasons. Give me Phoenix's situation over almost any other team that missed the playoffs, and some of the teams that made it in.
And that's all fifteen, very top to very bottom.
Where does that leave us?
FOUR of the teams that missed the playoffs in the West will be improved next season: the Lakers, Kings, Mavericks, and Suns, with the likelihood of each cracking the top eight in that order. The Timberwolves aren't turning into a pushover, either. Outside of the Clippers, no one who made the playoffs is getting much worse. It's gonna be a bloodbath, an enduring battle, out there.
Oh yeah, before we get there, the Warriors have to win another championship. Then will their era of dominance finally end? What shall we have to do before we can go on?
Screw it, who cares. Let's golf.
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